In a surprising move, Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida has announced his intention to file a "motion to vacate the chair" this week, which could lead to a vote of no confidence in House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz claims that McCarthy has failed to uphold his end of the bargain made during the lengthy speaker vote in January. The Florida Republican has threatened to use this motion if McCarthy relies on Democrats to advance spending bills, which is exactly what happened when McCarthy turned to Democrats to avoid a government shutdown.

This tactic to remove a speaker in the middle of a Congress is extremely rare. The last formal effort to remove a speaker occurred in 1910 when House Speaker Joe Cannon, a Republican from Illinois, faced displeasure from a number of members who found him too dictatorial. Cannon preempted his adversaries by offering the motion to vacate himself, ultimately surviving with the help of the minority party but becoming a weakened speaker.

It remains unclear whether House Democrats would assist McCarthy if Gaetz's motion moves forward. McCarthy ally Rep. Garret Graves, a Republican from Louisiana, has also filed a motion to vacate the chair, potentially superseding Gaetz's efforts. Some speculate that McCarthy loyalists may attempt to call Gaetz's bluff by filing their own motion first or daring Gaetz to follow through. However, Gaetz's resolution is considered "privileged," meaning it must be considered immediately or within two legislative days. The first vote would not be on Gaetz's motion, but rather on a secondary motion to table or refer the effort to a committee.

If the House approves the secondary motion, Gaetz's motion would be effectively killed. However, if the secondary motion fails, the House would then vote on Gaetz's motion to vacate the chair. This would trigger a vote for a new speaker, bringing everything on the House floor to a halt until a speaker is elected. The process of electing a speaker can be lengthy and complex, as demonstrated by McCarthy's initial election, which took 15 rounds over five days. The successful candidate must receive an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name.

Meanwhile, Gaetz's renewed threat to pursue the motion to vacate has sparked backlash from House GOP members. They are preparing a motion to expel Gaetz if an ethics committee report finds him guilty. It would take a two-thirds vote to expel Gaetz, and Republicans are cautious due to their slim majority in the House. With the possibility of members being expelled, retiring, or passing away, the GOP majority could be at risk.

Gaetz's motivation for targeting McCarthy appears to be rooted in spending issues rather than personal matters. Gaetz accuses McCarthy of breaking promises and going against agreed-upon spending limits. McCarthy, on the other hand, dismisses Gaetz's actions as personal and urges him to move forward and focus on governing.

The House Ethics Committee has been investigating Gaetz since 2021 for various allegations, including campaign finance violations, bribery, and drug use. Gaetz vehemently denies these accusations, as well as allegations from a leaked Justice Department probe involving sex trafficking and an underage girl. Gaetz's office confirmed earlier this year that the Department of Justice concluded its investigation without charging him with any crimes.

As the situation unfolds, it remains uncertain whether Gaetz's motion will gain enough support to proceed. With the House currently having 433 members, the successful candidate for speaker would need to receive 217 votes if all members participate in the vote. Progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has already stated her intention to vote to recall McCarthy, but it remains to be seen how other members will align themselves. The coming days will determine whether McCarthy can retain his position as speaker or if a new leader will emerge from the chaos within the Republican Party.