In a shocking turn of events, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel last Saturday, leaving Israeli intelligence officials baffled by the militants' tactics of entering and leaving the country. According to a senior defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity, the attack highlighted significant failures within the Israeli defense establishment and could potentially alter Israel's overall strategic approach towards Hamas and the Gaza Strip, which could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East as a whole.

Israel has traditionally relied on a two-pronged strategy to contain Hamas and Gaza: an extensive intelligence network that warns against Hamas's movements and the power of the Israeli Army to repel ground invasions. However, both of these safeguards failed during the recent attack. Despite some indications that Hamas was planning a major operation, Israeli intelligence failed to gather a clear picture of the extensive preparations made by the 250 militants involved in the assault, who targeted military bases, cities, and kibbutzim. This failure has raised questions about why Israel and the United States, who also had knowledge of a possible Hamas attack, were blindsided.

Mick Mulroy, a former C.I.A. officer and senior Pentagon official, suggested that the complexity of Hamas's attack would have required significant preparation. He highlighted the likelihood of indications such as the buildup of munitions, the preparation of the assault force, and cyber activity in Israel prior to the assault. Despite its reputation as the strongest intelligence power in the region, Israel failed to detect these signs and was caught off guard.

Since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Hamas has transformed from a militant organization to the de facto leader of the territory. While sporadic rounds of fighting have occurred in the past, nothing has been as extensive as the recent attack. In response, Israel has typically used its superior firepower, primarily from aircraft, to target Gaza while refraining from large-scale ground operations. The Israeli strategy has been to contain the conflict as long as Israeli casualties remained relatively low, as an all-out ground invasion was deemed too costly in terms of both Israeli soldiers' lives and the toll of governing millions of Palestinians in Gaza.

However, despite knowledge that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad receive support from Iran in terms of funding, training, weapons, and advanced combat and intelligence gear, Israel continued with this strategy, allowing the militant groups to grow stronger over time. The recent surprise attack on Israel occurred almost 50 years after the start of the Yom Kippur War, which began with a surprise attack by Syrian and Egyptian forces. This timing suggests that Hamas deliberately chose a date associated with a national trauma to catch Israel off guard.

The intelligence failure and Hamas's ability to cross the border and inflict heavy losses on Israel bear a striking resemblance to the surprise of the 1973 war. Despite significant resources invested in gathering intelligence about Hamas, including targeting its leaders, this is not the first time the group has managed to surprise Israeli intelligence. In 2006, a Hamas squad entered Israel, attacked soldiers, killed two, and kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Israeli intelligence remained unaware of the attack and Shalit's whereabouts for more than five years, ultimately resulting in a controversial prisoner exchange.

During the recent attack, the Israeli Defense Forces were slow to respond to the scenes of violence, leaving many residents to defend themselves. Videos recorded by Hamas during the operation, which quickly circulated on social media, portrayed the Israeli defense establishment as weak, caught off guard, and humiliated. As a result, Israel is now expected to respond with force, potentially including a ground invasion of Gaza, as it feels it has been left with no choice. This move could further escalate the crisis, and there is concern about whether Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, will join the conflict. If Hezbollah becomes directly involved, the fighting could become some of the most intense the region has witnessed in years.

The situation has garnered international attention, with Julian E. Barnes reporting from Washington. The surprise attack has not only raised questions about the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence but also has significant implications for the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and regional stability.