In a surprising turn of events, four states are facing an influx of approved applications for private school tuition funding, putting a strain on state budgets. Arizona and Iowa are particularly affected, as even families whose children were previously enrolled in private schools are now taking advantage of public funding. This shift from private to public expense has raised concerns about the impact on state budgets, according to Josh Cowen, an education policy professor at Michigan State University.

Advocates for school choice argue that vouchers provide an opportunity for students in underperforming schools to escape and allow parents to have more control over their children's education. These programs, which have been in existence since the 1990s and are now available in the majority of states, are funded through vouchers, tax credits, or scholarships. However, the effectiveness of these programs in improving educational outcomes is still a subject of debate.

Although initial programs were designed for lower-income students, there has been a shift towards expanding eligibility. Nine states, including Arizona, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, have adopted programs that phase out income limits or significantly raise them. As a result, these states are reporting more approved applications than anticipated, which may require additional funding.

While it is too early to determine the full impact in the remaining five states, including Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Utah, it is clear that the situation is still filled with uncertainties. Questions remain regarding how many families will actually use the scholarships they have been approved for, the associated costs, and the measures lawmakers will propose to address the situation.

Supporters of vouchers argue that the demand exceeding expectations is a positive development that demonstrates parents' desire for educational options. Ryan Cantrell, the director of government affairs at the American Federation for Children, which advocates for voucher programs, expressed excitement about the growing demand.

This sentiment is shared by parents like Aaron Galaz from Arizona and Heather Stessman from Iowa. Galaz used the state's Empowerment Scholarship Account to enroll his son in a Catholic school, citing concerns about academic rigor and troubling lessons on gender identity in public school. Stessman also had a negative experience with bullying and inadequate support for her son's adaptive learning needs, prompting her to use the education savings account program to enroll her children in a Catholic school.

Opponents of these programs fear that the higher costs may lead to further cuts in public school funding. Beth Lewis, the executive director of Save Our Schools Arizona, which supports public schools and opposes vouchers, expressed frustration and concern about potential cuts. Although lawmakers have not publicly threatened to reduce public school funding, opponents are preparing for such possibilities.

In Arizona, the number of scholarships awarded has already surpassed projections for the full school year, with nearly 69,000 scholarships awarded by mid-October. The office of Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat who opposes the program, estimates that the number of students enrolled in the program could reach nearly 9% of the state's total student population, costing approximately 50% more than planned by the Republican-controlled Legislature.

While the legislative budget staff does not yet have a clear estimate of the taxpayer cost, political leaders are engaged in heated debates over the program. Governor Hobbs criticized the lack of accountability and sustainability of the vouchers and called for changes to be made. State House Speaker Ben Toma, a Republican, assured that the education budget has a surplus that can cover potential overruns.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Governor Greg Abbott is pushing for a scholarship program in a state that currently does not have any form of vouchers. The proposed scholarship program would have spending caps, but its future remains uncertain due to opposition from Democrats and some Republicans who believe that public schools play a vital role, especially in rural areas with limited access to private schools.

In Ohio, families of all income levels are eligible for scholarships, although the highest-income families cannot receive the maximum amount. The state has received nearly 85,000 applications for the funds, and while not all approved applicants will utilize the benefits, the expanded grants' $398 million budget is likely to be exceeded. Despite concerns about the state's ability to cover the expenses, Ohio State Senate President Matt Huffman, a Republican and supporter of vouchers, dismisses these worries, pointing out that the cost represents less than 1% of the state's total budget.

As the situation continues to unfold, Associated Press reporters, Hannah Fingerhut, Samantha Hendrickson, Isabella Volmert, and Paul Weber, have contributed to this report. Samantha Hendrickson is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative, a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to cover undercovered issues.