A new report by NBC News has declared that the majority of Americans who believe that crime is getting worse in America are "wrong," citing FBI statistics that show crime rates across the U.S. are actually in decline this year. NBC News reporter Kevin Dilanian explained in his article titled "Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong" that the 77 percent of Americans who believe crime is increasing are being influenced by social media and news outlets that condition them to see it that way.

The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, revealed that violent crime dropped by 8%, while property crime fell by 6.3% - the lowest level since 1961. Criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers, also found that murder rates have plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates ever recorded. Asher maintains his own separate database of murder rates in major cities, which indicates a 12.7 percent decrease this year, following an increase during the pandemic. Detroit, Baltimore, and St. Louis are on track to have the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade.

Despite these declines in crime rates, a Gallup poll released this month revealed that 77% of Americans still believe that crime rates are worsening. Further analysis of the poll's numbers showed that 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents, and 58% of Democrats hold this belief. Asher attributes this discrepancy between perception and reality to media consumption, stating that the news media's tendency to highlight disturbing crime stories, which then go viral on social media, creates a false but convincing picture.

The article also addressed the issue of retail theft, which is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities. However, FBI data categorizes retail theft under "larceny," which declined overall last year, according to the latest numbers. Dilanian's report highlighted that major retailers have had to close stores in cities due to massive theft losses, but the data does not necessarily support the thesis of a significant increase in retail theft nationwide.

While the FBI data provides valuable insights into crime trends, it is important to note that it only covers approximately 78% of the U.S. population and does not give as comprehensive a picture as the annual report the FBI releases. Additionally, the annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a considerable amount of crime goes unreported, and more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. However, Asher has raised concerns about the methodology of this survey.

Ultimately, the differing perceptions about crime in America can be attributed to a combination of partisan biases and media consumption habits. Asher argues that the news media's tendency to focus on sensational crime stories, which then spread rapidly on social media, creates a distorted perception of crime rates among the public. He suggests that these outlier incidents become the basis for people's estimations of whether crime is increasing or decreasing, despite statistical evidence to the contrary.