Welcome back to another breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
We have 10 baseball games on the schedule today that start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.
Let's dive right in and discuss some of my favorite projections to target when building out your PrizePicks cards for tonight's MLB slate.
Joe Ryan More Than 6.0 Pitcher StrikeoutsRyan has struck out at least seven batters in three of his four starts since returning from an IL stint due to a groin injury.
He has done that against Texas twice and Tampa Bay - two of the better offenses in the league.
The lone start where he fell short was against the Guardians, who are one of the lowest strikeout teams in all of baseball.
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On the season, Ryan owns a very strong 29.2% strikeout rate, and he gets a great matchup against the Reds today.
The Reds have been extremely strikeout-prone in the second half of the season, owning the fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) in the league since the All-Star break.
The only reason for concern is the Reds can get pretty left-handed against Ryan here. They project to roll out seven lefties in the lineup today.
Ryan has posted an elite strikeout rate versus righties (34.2%), but he has been closer to average against lefties (23.9%).
Despite the lefties, the Reds still offer plenty of strikeout upside for Ryan to record more than 6 strikeouts today.
John Means Less Than 3.5 Pitcher StrikeoutsMeans returned to a big-league mound for the first time since April 2022 just last week, as he has been recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He gave up 3 runs, including 2 home runs, and struck out just one batter in five innings of work. It was a fine showing for someone coming off major arm surgery, but he is clearly not yet back to top form.
Means threw just 75 pitches in his first start, and I believe we are looking at a pitch count of just 85-90 pitches in this spot.
Today, he gets a brutal matchup against the Astros, who have struck out at the lowest rate (18.3%) in the league versus left-handed pitching this season. They rank second in the league in both wOBA (.347) and wRC+ (122) versus lefties this year.
Means will have a tough time getting through this order more than twice, especially if he isn't in top form and is facing a restricted pitch count.
I think he records less than 3.5 strikeouts today.
Bryan Woo Less Than 6.0 Pitcher StrikeoutsWoo is coming off a spectacular performance against the Angels where he struck out eight batters in just 5.2 innings. It marked just the fifth time in 15 starts this season that Woo recorded more than 6 strikeouts, and he last did it back on July 23.
The Mariners have been cautious with the young righty as he has averaged just over 80 pitches per start, and he has not pitched past the sixth inning in any of his 15 starts this season.
Woo has an electric fastball, but he has not yet developed a breaking ball that allows him to rack up strikeouts. In fact, has thrown some variation of a fastball (4-Seam, Sinker, Cutter) 86.8% of the time this season. His slider, which he uses just 9.8% of the time, has generated only a 17.0% Put-Away rate this year.
He does get a great matchup today against the Athletics, but they project to roll out five lefties in the lineup. Woo has struck out just 18.0% of lefties he has faced this season (compared to 29.5% of righties).
He started a game against this Oakland team last month and recorded 5 strikeouts in six innings.
I think he records less than 6 strikeouts this time around as well.
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Michael Wacha More Than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Wacha has recorded more than 5.5 strikeouts in three of his six starts since coming off the IL in mid-August.
One of the starts he fell short was his first start off the IL when he made only 77 pitches as he was still building back up to a full workload. Another was his last start against the Dodgers, one of the best offenses in baseball that strikeouts at just a 21.7% rate as a team this season.
Today, he gets one of the best matchups there is, as the Padres welcome the Rockies to town. The Rockies have struck out at the third-highest rate (25.3%) in the league this season. And they have struck out at the highest rate (27.3%) in the league when they are away from Coors Field.
Wacha should be able to pitch deep into this game due to the great matchup, and I like him to record more than 5.5 strikeouts along the way.
themes: California Texas
MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks Sept. 20: Justin Steele, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!
We have games scattered throughout the entire day, but let's focus on the evening window for some fun.
Justin Steele More Than 6.0 Pitcher StrikeoutsSteele has been extremely competitive at this number since the beginning of August. In fact, the Chicago ace has tallied at least six strikeouts in eight of those nine starts.
His season-long strikeout rate against right-handed hitters is 22.9%, but that number has increased to 26.7% across the last 30 days as the Cubs are in the thick of the National League playoff hunt.
The Pirates may roll out an entire lineup of nine right-handed batters against him, but I believe Steele will bring his A-game.
Since Aug. 1, the Pirates own the eighth-worst strikeout rate (24.7%) against left-handed pitchers in baseball.
That number has bumped up to 25.8% since the beginning of September. Sign me up.
Zack Thompson Less Than 4.5 Pitcher StrikeoutsMilwaukee owns a top-10 MLB strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this month (19.2%) and is the third-best team in baseball since Aug. 1 at just 17.9%.
The Brewers were a complete mess against southpaws at the beginning of the season but have drastically turned it around by adding new personnel and simply getting healthier.
Thompson enjoyed some favorable matchups over the past two months or so as a starter, but this shouldn't be one of them.
I'm not buying his recent success.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Less Than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy ScoreThe Yankees are trying just about everything as they are out of the playoff picture this season.
One of their newer experiments is to stretch out Michael King to see if he's capable of becoming a starting pitcher.
King has ramped up from 61 pitches four starts ago, to topping out at a respectable 87 six days ago against Boston.
King has been just as spectacular as a starter as he was coming out of the bullpen, allowing no more than one earned run in any of those four recent appearances.
His long-term battle will be efficiency and pitching deeper into games.
The matchup with Vlad should favor King, who has been throwing roughly 50% of sinkers to right-handed hitters across the last month.
That pitch to righties has produced a massive 42.9 CSW%.
This season, Guerrero has struggled to get right-handed sinkers off the ground with a 60.9% ground-ball rate against it and just a .130 ISO.
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Tommy Edman Less Than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
Another sinker-ball pitcher Adrian Houser takes the bump on Wednesday against the Cardinals. Houser has thrown nearly 60% of sinkers to right-handed hitters this season.
Overall, he's punching out just 17.5% of righties - and that number has dropped to 14% across the last 30 days.
Edman might be the best contact matchup against Houser who is projected to be in the STL lineup, so both happy and surprised that PrizePicks has it on the board.
Since the beginning of 2022 (via RotoGrinders PlateIQ tool), Edman owns just a 5.8% strikeout rate against right-handed sinkers and a minuscule 6.9% whiff rate against that pitch overall (via baseballsavant).