In a shocking escalation of violence, Hamas launched a massive military operation into Israeli territory on October 7. The attack began with the shooting of thousands of rockets into Israel, followed by a land, air, and sea assault. The fighters managed to penetrate deep into Israeli-controlled territory, attacking military installations and temporarily taking over settlements. The death toll among Israelis has exceeded 1,200, including over 120 soldiers, and dozens of Israeli hostages were taken into the Gaza Strip.

The planning of this operation took somewhere between a few months to two years, according to different accounts from Hamas leaders. The depth and magnitude of the attack were unprecedented, catching Israel by surprise. This operation was a reaction to changing regional dynamics and growing Israeli aggression.

One of the factors that triggered Hamas's attack was the policies of the far-right Israeli government that enabled settler violence in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem. These policies led to a sense of desperation among Palestinians and growing demands for a reaction. The rising tensions in the West Bank caused by these policies also necessitated the shift of Israeli forces away from the south and into the north to guard the settlements, providing Hamas with a justification and opportunity to attack.

Another factor that compelled Hamas to act was the acceleration of Arab-Israeli normalization in recent years. This process diminished the significance of the Palestinian issue for Arab leaders, making them less keen on pressuring Israel. Hamas felt the need to act before a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal could be concluded, as it would have further weakened the chances of a two-state solution.

Hamas's decision to attack was also influenced by its improved ties with Iran. The movement had to reconsider its political position in opposition to Iran and the Syrian regime in recent years. Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, played a role in improving the relations between Hamas and Damascus. Hamas representatives visited Damascus, Beirut, and Tehran to repair ties. While Iran denies direct involvement in Hamas's operation, it expressed support for it.

However, Hamas's realignment with the "resistance axis" does not necessarily mean there will be a united front on the ground. Hezbollah, for example, has not joined the fight due to domestic politics in Lebanon. Hezbollah is trying to deter the Israeli army from going too far in its revenge against Hamas in Gaza.

The end game for Hamas is not clear three days into the attack. Its priority seems to be taking military and civilian hostages to deter Israeli retaliation and later exchange them for Palestinian prisoners. However, Israel does not appear to be deterred, and the excessive bombardment of the strip is taking a toll on Gaza's hospitals and infrastructure.

Israel is struggling to recover from the attack and has intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. It announced a total blockade on the coastal enclave, turning off electricity and blocking humanitarian aid. Netanyahu's government was already facing domestic turmoil before the attack, and its stability will now be further tested. Israel will have to decide whether to undertake a ground invasion and if it is worth the military and political costs.

Eventually, Israel will have to ask Egypt to mediate a conclusion to the escalation and a deal to exchange prisoners. Hamas, on the other hand, will face the challenge of translating its operation into policies and governance that serve the Palestinians in the long term.

The United States will have to put its normalization mediation plans on hold for now. Talks on a Saudi-Israeli deal are expected to be shelved due to the current public mood in the Arab world after the Gaza attack. These developments work in Iran's favor, as it can now pressure the US into re-entering a nuclear deal that would alleviate some of the sanctions pressure.

Whatever mediation happens between Israel and Hamas, it is unlikely to address the root causes of the conflict. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue to fester and produce cycles of violence unless there is political will within Israel to address issues such as the imprisonment of Palestinians, the freezing of Palestinian funds, dire socioeconomic conditions, and settlement expansion.