Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us, and it's time for another round of DFS picks for the main slate on Sunday. After a few weeks of near misses, we're hoping to get back on track and score big on PrizePicks. I've carefully analyzed the options in the PrizePicks lobby and have come up with my four favorite DFS plays for Sunday's games.
First up, I'm betting on Dak Prescott to have more than 12.5 rushing yards. Since the Cowboys' bye week in Week 7, Prescott has taken control of the offense, prioritizing the passing game over the running game. With his exceptional performance in the last three games, leading in quarterback rating, passing yards, and fantasy points, it's clear that the Cowboys are relying heavily on his arm. However, even in blowout wins against the Rams and Giants, the Cowboys have remained aggressive and given Prescott opportunities to scramble. He has rushed for at least 14 yards in each of the last four games, making this a promising bet.
Next, I'm looking to Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown to have more than 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns combined. This option on PrizePicks offers two chances at a touchdown with teammates, providing some coverage. Murray made a strong comeback in his first start back, showcasing his mobility with six rushing attempts for 33 yards and a rushing touchdown. If Murray manages to score another rushing touchdown or throws a few passing touchdowns, there's a good chance of hitting this projection with Brown. Brown has a 24% target share on the season and has performed well with Murray in the past. Additionally, the Cardinals have a favorable matchup against the Texans, who rank 25th in dropback EPA this season.
Moving on to the kicking game, I'm betting on Riley Patterson to make more than 1.5 field goals. When it comes to field goal projections, I prefer kickers from offensive-minded teams that are favored. Patterson fits the bill perfectly. The Lions are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Bears, who surprisingly boast a strong run defense. This could result in some third-and-long situations in the red zone, providing ample opportunities for Patterson to kick field goals. He has made at least two field goals in five of his last six games, and with the favorable conditions of playing indoors and being part of an offensive-minded team, Patterson's chances of hitting this projection are high.
But we're not done with the kicking projections just yet. I'm also going with Brandon McManus to make more than 1.5 field goals. McManus has been consistent throughout the season, making at least one field goal in every game and three or more field goals in four games. The Jaguars, who the Broncos are facing, have a pass-funnel defense, meaning they are strong against the run but vulnerable against the pass. This can lead to opponents moving the ball easily but stalling on drives, resulting in field goal opportunities for the likes of McManus. With the Jaguars allowing teams to move the ball easily, McManus has a great chance to hit this projection.
In other NFL news, Week 11 brings us closer to winter as the fall season is in full bloom. Last week was a success for our prop bets, as we went 3-5 and added 6.9 units of profit to our season-long tally of 9.46 units. With a total profit of 16.36 units, we are looking to continue our winning streak with our Week 11 player props and picks.
One of our top picks is Jaylen Warren to rush for over 38.5 yards. This emerging Steelers back has been making waves, running for 101 yards just last week. While he may technically be the backup, his snap counts are increasing, with a 50/50 split with Najee Harris in the previous game. Warren boasts an average of 5.1 yards per carry, outperforming Harris, who averages 4.0 yards per carry. With his recent success and the potential for an expanded role, Warren is an excellent bet at 15/1 on Bet365 Sportsbook. If Bet365 is not available, taking the over 38.5 rushing yards at BetRivers is still a solid option.
Another prop bet to consider is Jaylen Waddle surpassing 4.5 receptions. Waddle has been a consistent target for the Dolphins, with at least six targets in every game since October 1. Facing the Raiders as 13.5-point favorites, Waddle is expected to have a strong performance. The Raiders' defense may have looked good against weaker offenses, but they are likely to struggle against the Dolphins' offense. This sets the stage for Waddle to shine and exceed the 4.5 reception mark.
And last but not least, we have Kyler Murray as an anytime touchdown scorer and also to have over 40 rushing yards. Murray has made a remarkable comeback, leading the Cardinals to victory in a thrilling match against the Falcons. With his rushing abilities on full display, totaling 33 yards and a touchdown in the previous game, Murray is a solid bet to find the end zone again this week. The Texans' defense, which has been involved in high-scoring shootouts recently, presents an ideal opportunity for Murray to shine once more.
It's going to be an exciting week in the NFL, and these prop bets offer great opportunities to cash in on the action. Whether it's the DFS plays on PrizePicks or the player props on Bet365, BetRivers, BetMGM, or FanDuel, make sure to do your research and place your bets wisely.
