Sunak's Election Dilemma: Timing the Inevitable Defeat

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing mounting pressure from colleagues within his Conservative Party to call an early general election, following a critical legal ruling against his flagship immigration policy. The conventional wisdom is that Sunak, whose party is currently trailing in the polls, would wait until the fall of next year to call the election. However, some party members argue that turning the election into a referendum on immigration could deflect attention from Britain's economic woes. Sunak's immigration policy, which aimed to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, was struck down as unlawful by the Supreme Court. In response, Sunak vowed to negotiate a new treaty with Rwanda that includes a commitment not to remove migrants. He also pledged emergency legislation to declare Rwanda a safe country for asylum seekers. However, it remains uncertain whether this approach would survive legal challenges and the scrutiny of the House of Lords. Immigration has been a contentious issue in England's north and Midlands, where support for the Conservatives surged in the 2019 general election. Political analysts suggest that Sunak's chances of winning the next election depend on his ability to connect with these voters by reducing immigration and regaining control of the country's borders. However, other experts argue that an immigration-dominated election could backfire for the Tories, as most voters view the party negatively on this issue. They suggest that the economy, which matters more to voters at large, should be the focus of the election. Sunak has made progress in reducing inflation but has yet to achieve his goals of reviving growth and reducing public debt. The timing of the election poses a challenge for Sunak, as previous prime ministers have paid a high price for miscalculating the timing of elections. Some suggest that Sunak could hold the vote in May or June 2024 to coincide with local elections, or in October or November to align with the US elections. However, the possibility of a victory by Donald Trump could unpredictably sway British voters. As a last resort, Sunak could delay the election until January 2025. Ultimately, Sunak will only call an early vote if he believes he has a realistic chance of retaining his position as Prime Minister.