In a closely watched special House election in New York's Third Congressional District, voters have the opportunity to choose a replacement for former congressman George Santos. Santos, a Republican, won the seat in November 2022 but was later expelled from the House after being charged with campaign fraud and other crimes. The election, which is considered a tossup, is seen as having high stakes for both the immediate balance of power in the House and the upcoming general elections in November.

The two candidates vying for the seat are Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic congressman, and Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County legislator running as a Republican. Suozzi previously represented a version of this Long Island-area district in Congress for six years before giving up the seat to run for governor in 2022. Pilip, on the other hand, is an Ethiopian-born former Israeli paratrooper who has served in the Nassau County legislature since 2021. Although elected on the Republican and Conservative party lines, she remains a registered Democrat.

The special election comes as the district's boundaries are set to change next year due to redistricting. The current district, which was created about a year and a half ago, played a significant role in the Republican wave that helped the party regain control of the U.S. House. However, a New York court rejected a map drawn by Democratic lawmakers, leading to the creation of a more Republican-friendly district. The new map ordered by the state's highest court will be in effect for this year's elections.

The outcome of the special election will depend on voter turnout and support in different parts of the district. District 3 has a larger share of Republicans and independents compared to the rest of the state, which has contributed to Republican success in the past. However, the district also has a significant number of registered Democrats. In the 2022 general election, Santos won by almost eight percentage points against his Democratic opponent, despite the district favoring Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in the previous presidential elections.

One factor that could influence the election is the endorsement of Mazi Pilip by the National Border Patrol Council, which represents 18,000 Border Patrol agents. The endorsement comes as the migrant crisis becomes a top concern for constituents in the district. Pilip has emphasized the need for securing the border and allocating resources to address the issue, while Suozzi has endorsed compromise legislation to tighten border security.

Early voting has already begun, and the election will take place on February 13. The Associated Press will provide coverage of the special election, and the results will be determined based on the final vote count. The outcome of the election will have implications for the balance of power in the House and will set the stage for the general elections in November.