In a surprising turn of events, Modelo Especial has become the new king of beers, outselling long-time champion Bud Light, according to the latest data. Bump Williams Consulting and NielsonIQ reported on Monday that Modelo had widened its lead in year-to-date sales over Bud Light, accounting for 8.4% of beer sales in stores through Aug. 19, compared to Bud Light's 8.2% share. This marks a significant shift in the market, as Bud Light has held the top spot for the past two decades.

"More consumers are buying Modelo more frequently and in greater quantities before the summer ends," said Bump Williams, the head of the consultancy, in an interview with The Post. He added that retailers have responded to this surge in popularity by devoting "more shelf space" to Modelo Especial. The Mexican beer, distributed in the US by Constellation Brands, has consistently outsold Bud Light in monthly sales since May.

This unexpected shift in the beer market can be attributed, in part, to a controversial tie-up between Bud Light and trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney. The decision to tap Mulvaney on April 1 to promote the brand caused unprecedented outrage among consumers, leading to a national boycott of Bud Light that shows no signs of abating.

On a weekly basis, sales of Bud Light have declined by 26.8% through Aug. 19, while sales of Modelo Especial have grown by 15.9% over the same period. Other non-Anheuser-Busch related brands have also seen gains, with Miller Lite experiencing an 18.5% increase in sales, Coors Light with a 21.6% growth, and Yuengling Lager with a 19.7% increase for the week ended Aug. Budweiser, another Anheuser-Busch brand, has been particularly affected by the controversy, seeing a 10.3% decline in sales during the same period. However, there is some hope for the company, as Michelob Ultra has experienced a slight increase of 0.4% in sales.

The repercussions of the Mulvaney fiasco have been significant for Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bud Light's parent company. The Belgian-based brewery reported a 10.5% drop in revenue and nearly 30% decrease in profit in the second quarter of the year.

Modelo Especial's rise to the top has been a result of shrewd marketing and rising brand recognition, according to Constellation Brands, the company's distributor. Sales of Modelo have more than tripled to 187 million cases in 2022, thanks to a campaign that helped the beer transition from being primarily consumed by Latinos in California to being embraced by mainstream America. Jim Sabia, an executive vice president at Constellation, credits the success to a national ad campaign launched in the early 2010s, featuring rags-to-riches narratives of Latino athletes and ordinary citizens. The campaign's slogan, "Brewed for those with a fighting spirit," resonated with consumers, and the commercials were set against the backdrop of the iconic song "The Ecstasy of Gold" by Ennio Morricone.

Founded in 1925, Modelo gained popularity in the Mexican domestic market before becoming the best-selling beer in the 1980s. It entered the US market in the 1990s, following the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Anheuser-Busch InBev acquired Modelo in a $20 billion deal in 2012, but had to sell its US operations to Constellation for $4.75 billion due to antitrust regulations.

Interestingly, Modelo's rise to the top has also been accelerated by the backlash against Bud Light. Sabia believes that Modelo would have eventually surpassed Bud Light even without the Mulvaney controversy. He stated that Modelo is primarily attracting consumers in the mainstream segment, rather than taking market share directly from Bud Light.

Constellation Brands, which also produces Corona Light beer, has exceeded Wall Street expectations for first-quarter earnings, thanks to higher pricing and steady demand for its alcoholic beverages. The company's beer business saw an 11% increase in sales in the quarter that ended on May 31, driven by strong growth in Modelo Especial, the Modelo Chelada brands, and Corona Extra.