In a major setback for U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republicans once again blocked a procedural vote on defense spending, increasing the risk of a government shutdown in just 10 days. The House of Representatives voted 216-212 against beginning debate on an $886 billion defense appropriations bill, with opposition coming from a small group of hardline conservative Republicans.

This failure comes at a crucial time, as federal agencies are set to shut down on October 1 unless Congress passes a short-term continuing resolution or a full-year funding bill. However, House Republicans have thus far failed to unify around either possibility, and the proposals they have considered have only gained support from within their own party, making them unlikely to succeed in the Democratic-majority Senate or be signed into law by President Joe Biden.

The inability of Republicans to reach a consensus has drawn criticism from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who accused Speaker McCarthy of wasting time on extremist proposals that have no chance of becoming law. This sentiment was echoed by Representative Keith Self, who voted to advance the bill but expressed a lack of trust in McCarthy's leadership. Emotions were running high in the chamber as the motion failed.

Adding to McCarthy's challenges, former President Donald Trump called for a government shutdown, reminiscent of the three shutdowns that occurred during his tenure. Trump accused the Biden administration of weaponizing the government and called on Republicans to defund all aspects of Biden's policies. It is worth noting that Trump is currently facing four criminal trials, including two brought by federal prosecutors, and has claimed without evidence that they are politically motivated.

The political brinkmanship surrounding the spending negotiations has also caught the attention of Wall Street, with rating agency Fitch downgrading the U.S. debt rating earlier this year. Representative Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House appropriations panel, expressed her disappointment, stating that the unpredictability of the situation is detrimental to the country's ability to respond to the needs of the American people.

The root cause of the impasse lies within the Republican caucus, where a small group of hardline conservatives is demanding assurances that fiscal 2024 appropriations will not exceed the 2022 top line of $1.47 trillion. This amount is $120 billion less than what McCarthy and Biden agreed to in May. A bipartisan group known as the "Problem Solvers Caucus" proposed a measure to fund the government through January 11, but it remains unclear if the measure will advance without McCarthy's support.

McCarthy had previously proposed a 30-day continuing resolution that would cut spending to the 2022 level and include a commission to tackle the federal debt, as well as conservative restrictions on immigration and the border. However, it is uncertain how much support this proposal would garner from House Republicans.

The situation is further complicated by McCarthy's need to balance the demands of hardline conservatives with the broader goals of the Republican Party. McCarthy, who is facing the biggest challenge of his speakership, is trying to avoid a government shutdown without losing his position as the top Republican in Congress.

Moderate Republicans believe that ultimately, Congress will adhere to the spending level agreed upon by Biden and McCarthy. However, if the House fails to move forward on spending, Republican leaders may be forced to negotiate directly with Senate Democrats on appropriations bills, bypassing the hardline conservatives. This could result in bipartisan legislation that could pass both chambers quickly and be signed into law by Biden.

The stakes are high for McCarthy, who is already facing the threat of ouster. Some House Republicans fear that his decision to open an impeachment inquiry into Biden could hinder cooperation on spending from Democrats. The White House has dismissed the probe as unsubstantiated, and many moderate Republicans claim they have seen no evidence of wrongdoing by the president.

As the deadline for a government shutdown looms, the fate of spending legislation remains uncertain. While the House continues to grapple with internal divisions, the risk of a government shutdown becomes increasingly real, with potentially dire consequences for both the American people and the political future of Speaker McCarthy.