In a highly anticipated special election scheduled for Tuesday, Ohio voters will have the opportunity to decide on a ballot question that could significantly impact the state's constitutional amendment process and potentially affect the fate of a November referendum aimed at protecting abortion rights statewide. The proposed constitutional measure, known as Issue 1, is backed by Republicans and seeks to raise the approval threshold for amendments from 50% to 60% of the vote, while also implementing stricter standards for amendments to be placed on the ballot.

The timing of this ballot question is crucial, as it has the potential to influence the November referendum that aims to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. Recent polls indicate that the percentage of voters in favor of the abortion amendment falls just short of the 60% threshold, suggesting that the outcome of Issue 1 could determine the fate of the referendum.

Both sides of the abortion debate have invested significant resources in Ohio ahead of the vote. Political groups on both sides have poured millions of dollars into the state, recognizing the significance of this election. This election represents the latest statewide battle over abortion following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to eliminate a nationwide right over a year ago. In states where abortion opponents, typically Republicans, control the legislature or hold the governor's office, ballot initiatives have become powerful tools for abortion rights activists.

Early voting turnout in Ohio has been remarkable for an August special election. As of Friday, the Ohio secretary of state's office reported that over 575,000 early votes had been counted, nearly surpassing the total number of ballots cast in last year's August primary election for state legislative seats. Reports from local news outlets also indicated long lines at some polling locations over the weekend, indicating a high level of engagement and investment from Ohioans in the election's outcome.

Ohio's Republican Governor Mike DeWine signed a six-week abortion ban into law in 2019, which went into effect following the Supreme Court's ruling. However, the ban was put on hold in September due to a legal challenge from abortion clinics, and now the Ohio Supreme Court has agreed to make a decision on the case.

Critics of Tuesday's ballot question argue that it goes beyond the scope of abortion, claiming that it is undemocratic to limit citizens' power. Jen Miller, the executive director of the League of Women Voters of Ohio, emphasized that this issue extends far beyond one party, election, or issue, pointing out that it affects a freedom Ohioans have had for more than a century. For example, good government groups are currently working on a 2024 ballot question that aims to amend the constitution to prevent gerrymandering, a process where one party manipulates district lines to consolidate power. If Tuesday's referendum succeeds, it would become significantly more challenging to get such an issue on the ballot. Last year, Ohio Republicans drew heavily partisan state legislative and congressional maps, defying court orders to revise them, leading to the use of unconstitutional maps in the November elections. This highlights the broader implications of this election, as it raises questions about the ease with which the state's constitution can be amended.

Those who oppose the November referendum argue that it is extreme, asserting that its vague language would permit minors to obtain abortions and gender-affirming surgeries without parental consent. However, supporters of the amendment highlight that it does not mention gender-affirming treatment or parental consent. The significance of this election in Ohio extends beyond the issue of abortion, as it raises concerns about the ease with which the state's constitution can be amended. Experts have criticized the Republican proposal to raise the approval threshold, warning that it could result in "minority rule."

The outcome of this election holds far-reaching implications, not only for abortion rights but also for the future of direct democracy in Ohio. Substantial outside spending has been observed in this election, with both sides receiving support from various dark-money groups. Richard Uihlein, an Illinois Republican mega-donor, has contributed at least $4 million to the pro-Issue 1 campaign, according to campaign filings. Other groups supporting the referendum have received funds from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and The Concord Fund, a conservative dark-money group. The anti-Issue 1 side has garnered support from the Tides Foundation, a California-based social justice organization, and the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a liberal dark-money group.

This election in Ohio is viewed as a crucial test for American democracy, as it raises concerns about the ease with which the state's constitution can be amended. The Republican proposal to raise the approval threshold has faced criticism from experts who argue that it could lead to minority rule. The outcome of this election will be closely monitored and could have implications for similar battles over abortion and direct democracy in other states.

Ultimately, Tuesday's election will determine whether Ohioans want to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution, potentially impacting the future of abortion rights in the state. Ohio voters have demonstrated significant early voting turnout, indicating a high level of engagement and investment in the election's outcome. The debate surrounding the ballot question goes beyond the scope of abortion, with opponents arguing against limiting citizens' power to amend the constitution and supporters asserting the necessity of protecting certain rights and preventing misuse of the amendment process.