Ohio voters will decide in a special election on Tuesday whether to make it more difficult to pass state constitutional amendments, including a November ballot initiative that would protect abortion rights statewide. The Republican-backed constitutional measure would raise the threshold to approve an amendment from 50% to 60% of the vote, while also implementing more stringent standards for amendments to get on the ballot in the first place.

The timing of this ballot question, known as Issue 1, is no accident. If it passes, a super-majority of voters would be required to approve a November referendum that seeks to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. Polls have found that the percentage of voters who favor the abortion amendment is just shy of 60%, suggesting Issue 1 could determine the outcome.

Political groups on both sides of the abortion issue have poured millions of dollars into the state ahead of the vote. Tuesday's election, scheduled by the Republican-controlled legislature, is the latest statewide battle over abortion more than a year after the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated a nationwide right. Ballot initiatives have become powerful tools for abortion rights activists in states where abortion opponents, usually Republicans, control the legislature or hold the governor's office.

Early voting turnout in Ohio appeared to be extraordinarily high for an August special election. As of Friday, more than 575,000 early votes had been tallied, according to the Ohio secretary of state's office, already nearing the total number of ballots cast in last year's August primary election for state legislative seats. There were long lines at some polling locations over the weekend, according to local news reports.

Republican Governor Mike DeWine signed a six-week abortion ban into law in 2019, which went into effect following the Supreme Court's decision. The ban was put on hold in September after a legal challenge from abortion clinics; the Ohio Supreme Court has agreed to decide the case.

Some groups opposed to Tuesday's ballot question have emphasized that the referendum goes beyond abortion, arguing it is simply undemocratic to curb citizens' power. "This is much larger than one issue; it's much larger than one party or one election," said Jen Miller, the executive director of the League of Women Voters of Ohio. "This is about a freedom that Ohioans have had for more than a century." For instance, good government groups are working on a ballot question for 2024 that would amend the constitution to prevent gerrymandering, the process by which one party manipulates district lines to entrench power. If Tuesday's referendum succeeds, getting that issue on the ballot would be far more challenging. Last year, Ohio Republicans drew sharply partisan state legislative and congressional maps and defied court orders to revamp them; November's elections were held using maps that had been ruled unconstitutional.

Abortion rights opponents have called the November referendum extreme, claiming its vague language would allow minors to get abortions and gender-affirming surgery without parental consent. Supporters note that the amendment makes no mention of gender-affirming treatment or parental consent.

Tuesday's election has drawn millions in outside spending, including from so-called “dark-money” groups that are not required to disclose their donors. Illinois Republican mega-donor Richard Uihlein has donated at least $4 million to the pro-Issue 1 campaign, according to campaign filings. Other groups supporting Tuesday's referendum have collected funds from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and The Concord Fund, a conservative dark-money group. The anti-Issue 1 side has gotten support from the Tides Foundation, a California-based social justice organization, and the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a liberal dark-money group.

This election in Ohio is seen as a significant test for American democracy, as it raises questions about the ease with which the state's constitution can be amended. The Republican proposal to raise the threshold for approving amendments has been criticized by experts, who argue that it could lead to "minority rule." The outcome of this election could have far-reaching implications, not just for abortion rights, but also for the future of direct democracy in the state. The high early voting turnout suggests that Ohioans are highly engaged and invested in the outcome of this election.

The debate around this ballot question goes beyond the issue of abortion. Opponents argue that it is undemocratic to limit citizens' power to amend the constitution, while supporters argue that it is necessary to protect certain rights and prevent abuse of the amendment process. The battle over this election has attracted significant outside spending, with both sides receiving support from various dark-money groups.

Ultimately, Tuesday's election will determine whether Ohioans want to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution and, in turn, potentially impact the future of abortion rights in the state. The results will be closely watched and could have implications for similar battles over abortion and direct democracy in other states.